Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.397272 1.587927 1.791283 2.023909 2.282218 2.559806 2.880233
2024-12-22 1.135500 1.391998 1.683280 2.036995 2.453253 2.925831 3.501138
2024-12-29 0.983519 1.293370 1.666053 2.143636 2.735317 3.439941 4.337754
2025-01-05 0.796897 1.126002 1.545558 2.112802 2.851860 3.773513 4.999914
2025-01-12 0.662294 1.004670 1.466701 2.124409 3.023170 4.193226 5.813595
2025-01-19 0.544588 0.887779 1.378111 2.112522 3.163675 4.589678 6.640577
2025-01-26 0.472344 0.824571 1.355568 2.189245 3.434000 5.186494 7.793264
2025-02-02 0.406573 0.760298 1.322787 2.247604 3.685990 5.784102 9.005800
2025-02-09 0.344755 0.691443 1.273163 2.274370 3.895036 6.341385 10.213933
2025-02-16 0.294483 0.633076 1.231947 2.309274 4.120902 6.945282 11.545283
2025-02-23 0.240769 0.557444 1.149585 2.264963 4.215446 7.357731 12.624165
2025-03-02 0.190046 0.476228 1.043641 2.164699 4.205252 7.603646 13.465266
2025-03-09 0.158763 0.429868 0.998694 2.174772 4.397552 8.215404 14.976957
2025-03-16 0.129803 0.381252 0.940735 2.152438 4.531105 8.744416 16.404126
2025-03-23 0.113823 0.359494 0.935121 2.233037 4.865230 9.651107 18.545696
2025-03-30 0.090936 0.313283 0.867050 2.175611 4.930580 10.091069 19.923877
2025-04-06 0.075079 0.281107 0.824660 2.166326 5.089760 10.716119 21.680437
2025-04-13 0.061068 0.249406 0.776618 2.136755 5.204241 11.268620 23.351298
2025-04-20 0.053338 0.234797 0.769008 2.199274 5.518422 12.227066 25.837734
2025-04-27 0.046069 0.219088 0.755233 2.245146 5.802369 13.150835 28.326930
2025-05-04 0.038950 0.201041 0.730942 2.261201 6.022352 13.965894 30.667448
2025-05-11 0.033207 0.185848 0.711567 2.286920 6.267434 14.851928 33.207567
2025-05-18 0.026647 0.163957 0.666149 2.235602 6.326514 15.357551 35.032357